Previewing Some Big December Events

Previewing: NKTR, ALMS, DYN, VTYX, PHVS, GPCR, OTLK, NVO

Hello Subs!

It’s been a heck of a run in the XBI over the past ~6 months! But the year’s not over yet. December is looking very busy, so don’t close up shop just yet. Here are several big December read-outs I’m watching:

NKTR - Phase 2b REZOLVE-AA data from Rezpeg in AA: This is a 36-week study of Rezpeg in (severe, SALT > 50) Alopecia Areta. Recall that Rezpeg succeeded in the REZOLVE-AD (Atopic Derm) Phase 2b in June 2025 (16-wk induction phase), and we will receive the 52-week maintenance data from that study in Q1 2026. I’m very optimistic there, especially after what looks to be outstanding initial data and crossover data at 40 weeks just presented earlier this month at ACAAI. In AA, NKTR is investigating Rezpeg (low and high doses vs. pbo), with a primary endpoint of SALT reduction at 36 weeks. The key secondary endpoint is the percentage of patients who achieve SALT-20 or better. For the primary endpoint of SALT reduction, I’m looking for a ≥ 25% pbo-adjusted score from either the high or low dose, with a boost in confidence if we see a dose-response. This would effectively match data from LLY’s JAKi, Olumiant (baricitinib). For SALT-20, I think the benchmark is to see a ≥ 15% pbo-adjusted delta. Matching Olumiant might not sound all that exciting, but with (likely) improved safety and far more convenient dosing, success in REZOLVE-AA sets up NKTX to enter Phase 3 with another potential > $1 billion indication for Rezpeg on top of what I already model as $1.5 billion in peak sales in AD. My current price target is $80/sh. Success in REZOLVE-AD would boost that target to $90/sh. Failure in REZOLVE-AD reduces my target to $60/sh.